Upendra Kushwaha and his Political Kheer

Ajit Jha, Assist. Professor - ISID and
Shishu Ranjan, Political and Economic Analyst

As alarm bells for the 2019 general elections have begun ringing, political parties, in order to maximise their gains, have started playing their smart and nifty electoral strategies.  It is most likely that this time a bi-polar contest could be held between the BJP-led NDA and the Congress -led UPA or a larger alliance of regional parties.

From this perspective, UP and Bihar are two crucial states that send 120 Lok Sabha members to parliament.  But it has been observed that more than development-related issue, it has been caste factor which has played a dominate role in winning or losing an election. In the past, elections in Bihar have shown multiple political realignments. As the 2019 parliamentary polls draw nearer and seat sharing issue among political parties is not resolved, there are chances of further realignments in the state. Some of the small caste-based parties are holding their cards close to their chest for opportune time to come and to bargain maximum number of seats.  

A few months ago, the JD (U), despite being a part of the NDA, had started flirting with the Congress to make a hard bargain with the BJP. This flirt settled down after Nitish Kumar and BJP president Amit Shah held their meeting in Patna in July. But it is the RLSP, one of the BJP’s alliance partners with a vote share of around 6.4 per cent in Bihar, which is trying to play political antics now. His remarks that Yadav’s milk and Kushwaha’s rice will make a good “kheer” were deliberate one, and he did this with an aim to send message to the BJP and its leadership that he may rock the NDA’s boat if his demands for more Lok Sabha seats are not met. Unconfirmed reports so far suggest that of the total 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar, the RLSP has been given two seats, 12 to the JD (U), six to the LJP and the BJP has kept 20 seats with it under a seat adjustment plan for the 2019 polls.

Currently, the RLSP has three parliamentary seats and its chief, Upendra Kushwaha, is a Union minister. In order to keep pushing his agenda, he recently held a meeting with NCP boss Sharad Pawar and joined a reservation row to appease his caste constituency and to become a strong face of OBCs in Bihar. 

In 2014 parliamentary polls, by winning all the three LokSabha seats it contested, the RLSP had hit 100 per cent strike rate and with this, Upedra Kushwaha became acknowledged leader of Kushwaha (Koiris) caste. However, his bargaining power with the BJP reduced following the come back of Nitish Kumar into the NDA’s fold in 2017. It should be remembered that once Kushwaha and Kumar were close friends and they parted their ways over tussle as to who was the real representative of Koiris and Kurmis in Bihar.

Since Nitish Kumar has re-joined the NDA, the political landscape of the state has also changed. He is indisputably a taller leader in Bihar as his credibility cuts across caste and religion lines. Also, he  managed to secure 12 seats in his own caste group in the last assembly polls, whereas Upendra Kushwala-led RLSP had won only two seats. Nitish Kumar's dislike to RLSP chief also became evident as RLSP didn’t get single ministerial birth, while the LJP got one seat in the Nitish Kumar’s cabinet.

Given this, Upendra Kushwaha is trying to play a better strategy to regain his clout within the NDA. There are other factors too that reduced his political worth in the NDA. One such is infighting within the RLSP. Arun Kumar, who successfully contested from Jehanabad on the RLSP ticket in the 2014 polls, is a prominent leader from Bhumihar caste; has formed a new party. Arun Kumar is also exploring for an alliance in order to maximize his political gains and the most likely, he would be in the opposition camp of Upendra Kushwaha, whose continuous rant for reservation in judiciary and in job promotions, has upset upper castes. Since Bhumihars are politically strong and influential in the Bihar’s Magadh region from where the RLSP has two MPs from Jehanabad and Karakat,  Arun Kumar’s exit from the party is likely to have an adverse impact on its winning prospect.  In 2019, if the RLSP contests from these two seats, loss from Jehanabad is most likely. The party can even lose Karakat LokSabha seat, currently being represented by Upendra Kushwaha himself. 

But equation could also be a different if the RLSP choses a strategy to make an alliance with the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ comprising the RJD, the Congress, the HAM and the NCP in the state. In that case, the loss of upper caste votes can be compensated by gains from Yadavs and Muslims, a strong support base of the RJD and the Congress. Also, those who are not satisfied with Nitish Kumar led NDA in Bihar can vote for the RLSP.

But nothing can be predicted for sure until Upendra Kushwaha decides to prepare ‘Kheer’.  Till then political commentators, experts, opinion makers and also common people on the tea stalls may discuss the recipe for ‘Kheer’. Yet it is clear that his recent utterances were deliberate ones and they were made in keeping with his future political plans.